书库哲学Knowledge and Decisions
书籍封面

Knowledge and Decisions

作者 Thomas Sowell
15.0 分钟

With a new preface by the author, this reissue of Thomas Sowell’s classic study of decision making updates his seminal work in the context of The Vision of the Annointed, Sowell, one of America’s most celebrated public intellectuals, describes in concrete detail how knowledge is shared and disseminated throughout modern society. He warns that society suffers from an ever-widening gap between firsthand knowledge and decision making—a gap that threatens not only our economic and political efficiency, but our very freedom because actual knowledge gets replaced by assumptions based on an abstract and elitist social vision f what ought to be.Knowledge and Decisions, a winner of the 1980 Law and Economics Center Prize, was heralded as a ”landmark work” and selected for this prize ”because of its cogent contribution to our understanding of the differences between the market process and the process of government.” In announcing the award, the center acclaimed Sowell, whose ”contribution to our understanding of the process of regulation alone would make the book important, but in reemphasizing the diversity and efficiency that the market makes possible, [his] work goes deeper and becomes even more significant.”Review''This is a brilliant book. Sowell illuminates how every society operates. In the process he also shows how the performance of our own society can be improved.'' --Milton Friedman''In a wholly original manner [Sowell] succeeds in translating abstract and theoretical argument into a highly concrete and realistic discussion of the central problems of contemporary economic policy.'' --F. A. HayekAbout the AuthorThomas Sowell has taught economics at a number of colleges and universities, including Cornell, University of California Los Angeles, and Amherst. He has published both scholarly and popular articles and books on economics, and is currently a scholar in residence at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

摘要

知识与决策

  • 托马斯·索威尔的《知识与决策》探讨了社会制度如何协调分散的知识,并分析了决策过程。本书强调了在不充分的知识下做出决策的挑战,并考察了不同制度(如家庭、市场、军队等)在调动知识方面的优缺点。

  • 你能获得:

    • 理解复杂社会如何运作的框架。
    • 识别不同决策过程中的激励与约束。
    • 分析社会问题和制度的工具。

核心内容:

1. 决策过程与机构的特性本身,而非目标,决定了其成败。

  • 详细解释:不要以“希望的结果”来定义过程(比如“盈利企业”),而要关注实际的决策机制和激励。
  • 举例:许多“盈利企业”并未盈利,所以应将其定义为剩余收益索取者,即支付员工和供应商后剩余的收益的获得者,这些收益可能是正的、负的或零。

2. 区分检验问题的过程特性与检验其宣称的目标或理想。

  • 详细解释:成功的起义运动会改变激励机制和约束,这会吸引不同类型的人,导致与最初的支持者不同的结果。
  • 举例:罗马帝国中,基督徒从受迫害的少数群体成为国家宗教的强大代理人,能够致富并迫害他人。

3. 机构进行增量权衡的能力各不相同,增量权衡很重要。

  • 详细解释:消费者在超市或汽车经销店购物时会不断进行增量权衡,但上诉法院可能只能在宣布法规合宪或违宪之间做出选择。
  • 举例:为了消除农药在环境中的残留危险而禁止使用农药,却导致了由昆虫传播的致命疾病(如疟疾)的发病率增加了千倍。

4. 决策地点变化的影响。

  • 详细解释:决策从家庭转移到学校,从市场转移到法院等,会影响决策者获得的知识的准确性和范围,并对人类自由产生影响。
  • 趋势:决策权日益远离个人、家庭和自愿协会,而向政府集中;在政府内部,决策权又从接受选民反馈的民选官员转向官僚机构和委任的司法机构等更封闭的政府机构。

5. 反馈机制至关重要。

  • 详细解释:在任何个人或群体都不太可能拥有充分知识以始终做出正确决策的世界中,反馈机制至关重要。这些机制不仅要传递信息,还要传递采取行动的激励。
  • 举例:可口可乐公司最初决定改变饮料口味以迎合公众偏好,但当市场反应与公司预期不符时,迅速撤销了该决定。

6. 系统性分析社会因果关系。

  • 详细解释:区分过程特性与宣称的目标或理想;重心在于检验问题的过程特性。

7. 社会过程如何传递知识:

  • 详细解释:机构如何以激励的形式有效地传递知识。

问答

Q:《知识与决策》的核心思想是什么?

A: 本书的核心思想是,决策过程和制度的具体机制决定了哪些知识可以被利用以及利用的有效性。更基本的问题不是做什么决定,而是谁来做决定,通过什么过程,在什么激励和约束下,以及用什么反馈机制来纠正错误的决定。

Q: 为什么关注决策过程的激励和约束很重要?

A: 关注激励和约束有助于我们了解特定决策可能产生的结果,以及这些决策如何影响社会。

Q:书中提到的社会趋势是什么?

A: 社会趋势包括:

  • 权力日益远离个人、家庭和自愿协会,而向政府集中;
  • 尽管个人自由表面上有所增加,但新的禁忌和压制正在取代旧的。

思维导图

目标读者

Academics, policymakers, and anyone interested in understanding how decisions are made in complex systems.

作者背景

Thomas Sowell has taught economics at various universities and is a scholar at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

历史背景

Written in 1980, with a preface added in 1996, the book reflects on the trends in decision making and knowledge dissemination during that period, including the rise of government influence and the impact of social and economic changes.

章节摘要

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